Firstly, the 16-18 December System should see what we all want, north-westerly and northernly winds. The wind direction and strength is the only thing that matters on Honshu. Hokkaido can do well off a low to the north. Anyway, both EC(Monthly Control and Determinstic) , JMA and CFS likes this system, with GFS not entertaining it that much.
EC entertains a nice wind for a couple of hours on the 22nd of December. GFS and CFS like this too.
Lastly, we will look at the 29-31 December. EC likes it for NW winds over Honshu and CFS likes it too but for the 27-28 December
At the moment, the polar vortex is over North Canada, contributing to cold conditions on the continent. BC/PNW are getting dumps quite often, but the interior Rockies are getting nice steady falls too.
For the 20th-23rd Dec, GFS, EC and GEM all suggest a low coming down over near the Mid-West and an arm of the big low (part of the polar vortex) comes across BC, causing snow.
Moving into the new year, 1st-4th Jan looks like a big low on EC, affecting PNW, BC and California and later the interior Rockies also. CFS likes it to push into only BC and PNW on 3-5 Jan
With no polar vortex and constant blocking highs, the short term is bleak for Europe. But long range, there may be something.
22nd-24th Dec on CFS looks like a possible chance of snow to the the North of the Alps. GFS looks like more to the South and EC looks to be leaning that way as time passes on.
27th-29th is looking good on GFS, EC and CFS for a nice coldish low from the south.
4th-7th sees the Alps sandwiched between two lows, that bring snow and very cold air on EC. If that low comes over the Alps is proved to happen on the 5th. CFS doesn’t really entertain this theory.
Remember don’t take these as accurate or even reliable forecasts as these are so far out into the
future. This is just for general viewing.
The Snowy Hibbo