Today we will look into teleconnections of recent, and see if there are any trends we can point to certain possibilities.
Time to look at the current world climate.
Polar Vortex –
Firstly let’s look at the polar vortex currently.
The vortex is split, one part over British Columbia and the other over Eastern Europe. This has
definitely contributed to recent cold temperatures over North America and possibly also Eastern Europe’s recent coldness.
Now let’s look at the forecast of the vortex on EC and GFS on the 22/23 December
The vortex is getting stronger over Northern Alaska in both models, countered by an higher height area over Eastern Europe. This may contribute to continued cold conditions in North America and fresh cold air into the area around Japan. This may also contribute to a warming of the area around Eastern Europe, but that isn’t very well backed by climatology in my opinion.
Now let’s look at the North Atlantic Oscillation. At the moment it is mildly positive.
The ensemble mean is similar for both EC and GFS, with the NAO index peaking at 2 around the
21st December. Positive values are associated with above normal heights and pressure in Western Europe, which often contributes to less precipitation. The NAO is forecast currently to go to the negative stage around the 28th of December. Now onto the Arctic Oscillation which is currently positive.
The ensemble mean is consistent on EC and GFS with a peak of 4 in the AO index, around the 21st December. Positive values in the AO index are associated with less cold air masses going south. This will ultimately make conditions in Western Europe worst. North America should remain okay because it is close to the polar vortex than Europe and Japan, that does better without lows (Negative AO), does well.
Here is a photo of the jetstream in the Northern Hemisphere. It demonstrates a positive NAO with the jetstream avoiding Western Europe. It isn’t great for Japan, as it currently is dragging warmish lows down from China and the Jetstream is looking okay for North America.
To end, ENSO is in Neutral having limited effect on snow around the world and the PDO is becoming more positive that may put a dampener on BC and PNW’s currently great season.
Europe: Should continue to have a poor season until the new year.
North America: Should continue to have a slightly above average season with BC/PNW slowing down over January.
Japan: Should start to takeoff with good falls as the jetstream eases off.
Until next time, thanks.