Welcome to Long Range Snow Center, if you haven’t been here before. We talk about long term snow possibilities and today I will look at the seasonal outlook for our Alpine region. Next blog in this series will be about temperatures and heights. But today we will just deal with the model output. Just a disclaimer to start with, this model output often fails. But it is the highest seasonal forecasting skill we have.
CanSIPS Jun-Aug SST Anomaly Forecast. Copyright Canadian Meteorological Center and Levi Cowan
CFS Jun-Aug SST Anomaly Forecast. Copyright National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Levi Cowan
POAMA Jul SST Anomaly Forecast. Copyright Bureau of Meterorology
I looked at five model outputs on SSTs in the Great Australian Bight, as well as the Tasman Sea. ECMWF (not pictured) shows a fairly cold Bight and a moderately warm Tasman over winter. NMME (not pictured) shows a mild Bight and an extremely warm Tasman off the NSW Coast. POAMA shows a slightly cooler than average Bight and a fairly warm Tasman. CFS shows a rapidly cooling Bight over winter and extremely warm Tasman, especially off the NSW Coast. CanSIPS has a fairly cool Bight and a very warm Tasman off the NSW Coast.
Cooler SSTs in the Bight increases Snowfall for the Alps and Warmer SSTs off the NSW Coast in the Tasman increases the chance of a Tasman low or an East Coast Low.
CanSIPS Jun-Aug Precip Anomaly Forecast. Copyright Canadian Meterological Center and Levi Cowan
CFS June and August Precip Anomaly Forecast. Copyright National Oceanic and Atmospehric Adminstration and Accuweather.
I used three model outputs for this assessment. CFS is forecasting mostly average conditions for precipitation over winter. CanSIPS is forecasting a slightly drier than average winter. NMME is also forecasting a slightly drier than average winter. My forecast at the moment (subject to change) would be a slightly drier season, but we will finalise this forecast in May, with an assessment of the climate drivers.
Thank you for reading this. As always, it will be a fun season, no matter the weather. I will start to wrap up the long term updates for the Northern Hemisphere, so stay tuned for that.
Another Disclaimer: The POAMA product featured in this article is strictly experimental and should not be interpreted as an operational product of the BOM.