Welcome back to the European Alps long term snow forecast update.
And it’s the final update unfortunately. But there is still some snow on the radar in a predominantly warm April and Early May. Enjoy the update!
GFS and EPS Control shows a low and associated trough coming in from the west, delivering snow high up in the Western Alps. CFS has a trough affecting most of the Alps, starting on the 22nd of April and continuing until the 26th, associated with a weak low over Italy, with the low dissipating by the 24th.
I could have labelled this as two seperate systems, but they are basically the same low. On EC Monthly Control, a trough crosses the Western Alps, bringing intense moisture. Then the low reorganises in the Mediterranean Sea and gives heavy falls across the Alps, particularly in the Eastern and Southern Alps. This system has freezing levels above 2000m in most of the Alps, colder the further east you go. On the 29th, CFS brings a weak low across the French Alps and has it dump precipitation as a trough that crosses the Alps over the 30th of April.
According to EC Monthly Control guidance, a ridge develops over Scandinavia and extends down to Germany and England. This blocks Atlantic activity from reaching the European Alps. Instead a series of lows in the Black Sea region develop on the 2nd of May and a trough associated with these lows delivers light snowfall to the Austrian Alps. Freezing Levels in Austria for this system are about 1300m. CFS shows a weak low from the south on the 2nd, bringing precipitation to the entire European Alps. This CFS event ends on the 6th of May.
Disclaimer: These long term products are from a range of 10-30 days away. I let my readers judge the accuracy of these forecasts. The products used are certainly not reliable at this range, but this is the best guidance we have for this period. Thank you.
Thank you so much for reading these European Long Range Snow updates! I appreciate you giving five minutes of your time to read what I have to say about the snow forecast for the next month. Enjoy the European Summer and I will back in September or October with a seasonal outlook for Season 17/18. Thank you again.