Welcome back to the final North America on the long term update for this season and indeed our final Northern Hemisphere outlook for this season. The Japan and Europe updates were released last week if you wish to take a look.
If you haven’t read one of my outlooks before, I assess each system by the EC Monthly dates for systems, give an outlook based on the EC data and then an outlook based on the CFS model. Enjoy the outlook!
EC Monthly shows a cold front pushing into BC/PNW on the 1st. On the 2nd and 3rd, a deep low creates heavy precipitation for North California and the Pacific Northwest. Over the 4th, an associated low moves north into Canada and spreads heavy precipitation up in BC/Alberta. Also on the 4th, the trough remaining pushes over Idaho, Montana, Utah and Wyoming. On the 5th, the deep low and associated trough consolidates over Colorado and Utah and moves out east on the 6th. Overall, it’s potentially a big system affecting most of the snowy regions in the Western US with freezing levels of 1500m in the PNW/BC Coast and about 2000-2200m along the Rockies. CFS shows a cold front hitting the BC coast on the 1st and it makes a trough giving light snowfall to inland BC and the Montana Rockies.
EC Monthly gives guidance for a cold front to give heavy precipitation to the PNW and BC Coast with lighter snowfall in the BC and Idaho Rockies. Freezing levels are about 1400-1600m across the BC and PNW for this period. CFS shows a weak cold front hitting the BC/PNW and then strengthens to make a fairly strong trough, delivering heavy precipitation over the Rockies.
EC Monthly shows an intense cold front impacting the West Coast from Tahoe up to Northern BC which bears heavy precipitation for BC Coast and Rockies, PNW, Montana and Idaho. It then collapses into a weak trough bearing light snow for the Northern US Rockies. CFS shows a system bringing heavy precipitation to the PNW and BC Coast on the 9th, and then dissipating the next day.
EC Monthly says that a cold front hits the PNW/Coastal BC and turns into a trough that had heavy precipitation for the entire Rockies from BC to Colorado. CFS shows dual cold fronts in this period, first one (11-12 May) is a cold front that impacts the BC Coast and deepens further inland, possibly delivering heavy snowfalls to higher areas and peaks in the BC Rockies. The next one on the 13th is a simple embedded trough with lows that trigger isolated falls across the Rockies and a main band of preciptation crossing the PNW and the Sierra Nevada.
Disclaimer: These are long term products with date between 10-30 days. I let my readers determine the accuracy of my outlooks. I certainly don’t proclaim a high level of accuracy with these long term outlooks. But it is very interesting. Thank you.
Thank you for reading! I appreciate those who give up their time to read what I have to say about the snow forecast for the next month. I hope you enjoy these outlooks and we will be back come December. Have a great summer to those in the States and Canada.