29th July Australia Long Range Forecast

Hey everyone! Welcome back to another long range forecast for the Australian Alps. I will first take you through potential weather events in the long term and then through the climate driver forecast.

11-14 August

GFS shows a massive moisture feed into a low on the 11th, which rapidly intensifies and turns into an ECL on the 12th. This scenario entails quite a lot of rain on the 12th, but the cold air catches up on the 13th and there could be some moderate snowfalls. By the 14th, the low moves into the Tasman and only light snow showers are present. EPS Control shows a weak cold front on the 10th, that could bring decent snowfall, but it is gone by the morning of the 11th.

15-17 August

EC Monthly shows an coldfront on the 16th of the August, clearing the following morning. It shows potential for light-moderate snow to 1000m. CFS suggests that there will be a coldfront on the 17th and 18th, with light-moderate snowfall to about 1600-1700m

23-25 August

After two fronts were ridged away from the Aussie Alps, EC Monthly shows this weak front with light-moderate snow on the afternoon of the 23rd and over the day of the 24th of August. The snow level is about 1500-1600m for this particular event. CFS suggests a coldfront crossing on the 22nd, and then lingering for several days, giving moderate-heavy snowfall at times to snow levels of 900m, until the 25th.

26-30 August

This looks like a massive system on EC Monthly, with the potential for snow down to 700m. There looks to be moderate-heavy snow on the 26th, light-moderate snow on the 27th and snow clearing on the 28th. More snowfall looks to occur on the 29th and the 30th with a follow up coldfront. CFS shows a coldfront coming over the Alps on the 28th and 29th of August, with light-moderate snowfall to snow levels of about 1000m.

Climate Drivers

SAM is currently Negative, which is good for Aussie Snow. Problem is that the only public ensemble issuing SAM forecasts, GEFS, shows that we are going into a positive phase, that is bad for Aussie snow.

MJO is currently weak and most models forecast it to stay that way. But GFS forecasts MJO to move into Phase 5 in several weeks, which is great for Aussie snow, and more specifically great for moisture feeding into cold fronts. This might explain the GFS forecast for the large moisture feed around the 11th August, with the moisture coming from the area usually aligned with MJO Phases 5&6. But MJO is most likely to stay weak, as the above EC Monthly MJO forecast states.

The polar vortex has been trending warmer than average for the past few weeks. This helps weaken the westerly winds around Antarctica a little, and encourages coldfronts to head for the mid-latitudes, including the Aussie Alps. So signs are positive, but things could change.

Thank you so much for reading. I hope it was interesting.

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the precipitation and temperature forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.

Thanks again, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and join my email list on the top bar of this website. See you on the slopes!

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