Hello it’s the Snowy Hibbo back again, for yet another Australian Long Range Snow outlook. I review each event on long range models, and then look at the climate drivers to see where they are heading us.
One thing to note before I start is, as you get further out on the GFS long term outlook, the further south the blocking highs go. These blocking highs look to move south, so coldfronts stop coming and dumping snow. On the plus side, this means clearer Spring weather is on it’s way, for those heading out into the backcountry or prefer a bluebird resort day.
GFS shows heavy r**n (the wrong type of precipitation) on the 27th and some light snow on the 28th. EPS Control shows a clipper on the 26th, with no precipitation.
31 August-2 September
EC Monthly shows a fairly strong low, with a large trough on the 31st, resulting in heavy snow/rain and snow showers on the 1st, once the trough passes. The snow levels for this system look like 2100m on the 31st and 1400m on the 1st. CFS shows mostly heavy rain on the 2nd, with light snow to 1900m on the 3rd.
EC Monthly shows a low moving south of the Alps, bringing low-moderate snowfall to 1600m on the 6th, with the chance of some light snow on the 7th to 1200m. Prior to these dates, EC Monthly suggests light rain in the 4th of August, but probably not worth much of a mention. CFS shows some light-moderate snowfall to 1900-2000m during the 5-7 August period, but mostly rain here.
A trough from the inland(warm type of system) unfortunately brings moderate-heavy rain on the 10th and 11th, according to EC Monthly. Very heavy precipitation is possible on the 9th and the 10th, according to CFS, but it’s pretty much all rain, except maybe a flurry on the peaks around the Main Range.
Overall, this period shows weaker systems, more rain and several clear days. If you want some fresh snow, go to the Main Range. The snowpack will decline and Spring will have arrived. I’ll write some musings around the start of September, of the Spring to come.
Firstly the MJO looks to be heading towards our side…
In the next fortnight, the MJO will move into our region, that correlates with more snow.
SAM also seems to be heading towards our side…
Most of the ensemble members are in the negative phase of SAM, that correlates to more snowfall for us.
Finally the Polar Vortex looks to warm quite a bit, with sudden spikes in the temperature of the polar vortex being good for Aussie snowfall and bringing coldfronts up to the Alps. We have two candidates for Antarctic stratospheric warming…
Hopefully these minor SSW events can help lift some coldfronts over the Alps for September.
So the model output looks poor for snowfall, the climate drivers look pretty good, looks like an interesting period ahead.
Thank you so much for reading. I hope it was interesting.
Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the precipitation and temperature forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.
Thanks again, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and join my email list on the top bar of this website. See you on the slopes!