Hello all, it’s the Snowy Hibbo ready to forecast the European Alps on the long term… It’s time to start looking into the snowiest parts of winter and see how the long term forecast goes. I will show the EC Monthly charts, that show potential snow opportunities, and then look at the teleconnections, that may signal more or less snowfall for Europe. Anyway let’s get started…
EPS Control shows an event, with snowfall caused by a strong trough on the 23rd and a weaker one later on the 24th, causing a snowy outlook for Christmas for the Northern Alps, particularly in Switzerland and parts of Austria. GFS doesn’t show such an event in this period however.
30 Dec-2 Jan
A Mediterranean Low and a trough from the Atlantic collide, and produce moderate-heavy snowfall for the Alps, particularly the southern half, over the 30th and 31st of December on EC Monthly. The precipitation turns lighter into the New Year and moves southeast to the Balkans. The lighter snowfall is concentrated in Austria, before weakening by the 2nd. CFS also shows a somewhat similar system, with a Balkans low and Atlantic originating trough, meeting on the 30th and causing moderate snowfall over the 31st and 1st, weakening to light snow showers on the 2nd.
A series of weak troughs come over the Austrian Alps on EC Monthly, associated to a low over Greece, bearing low-moderate snowfall to 400-900m. CFS shows a trough traversing the Southern Alps, causing moderate-heavy snowfall from France to Austria on the 4th, into the 5th.
EC Monthly shows a system coming over the French Alps over the 8th, with moderate snowfall to 900m. CFS shows a trough coming across the Southern Alps on the 6th, into the 7th, bearing moderate snowfall. CFS shows a Mediterranean low in the region over the 8th and 9th, generating moderate snowfall for the Southern Alps, mainly for France and Italy.
The MJO is currently leaving Phase 6, and entering Phase 7/8. Phase 6 + 10 days is correlated with a -NAO. So there is a higher chance of a -NAO in the 15-20 Dec period. GFS however shows a neutral NAO outlook, and so does CFS for the longer term outlook.
The AAM is forecast to go negative by GFS, which induces a -AO setup, which is good for a colder Europe and more snowfall for the Southern Alps.
The Arctic Oscillation or AO CFS forecast looks negative for late December/early January, which as I said looks good for a colder Europe.
The GEFS ensemble shows a weakening of the polar vortex in the next week or so, which induces a -AO setup as well. The CFS ensembles are not really following suit, instead showing a restrengthening of the winds around the polar vortex into the New Year. Then the winds and therefore the vortex weakens after the model’s peak around early-mid January.
There are some signs of a -AO setup approaching around New Year’s, some GEFS ensemble members show a Late December -AO too, which is good. But the EPS and GFS are split on snow for the Alps around Christmas. Interesting times anyway….
Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed it.
Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the model forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.
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