Hello all, this is the final forecast for this European season from me, the Snowy Hibbo. As usual, we will look at both model and driver based forecasts to see what will happen into April.
GFS shows a system of snowfall hitting all of the Alps with a snow level of about 1800-2000m on the 2nd, continuing into the 3rd. EPS Control looks like it may support this, but it is beyond it’s range, so I can’t look at much except signposts.
EC Monthly shows a low to the South brings snowfall to 1800-2200m for the Southern Alps from early on the 4th. On the 5th, this moves towards the Northern Alps, with light-moderate snowfall up there, weakening early on the 6th.
On EC Monthly, a trough from the West brings a snowfall system from the evening of the 8th. The Western Alps, particularly to the North, get moderate-heavy snowfall over the 9th. The focus of the snowfall shifts towards Austria on the 10th, where moderate snowfall continues until the 13th in one way or another.
The Northern Alps in Austria and Switzerland get hit with a trough to the North on EC Monthly on the 15th. This system continues through to the 16th, and possibly beyond that point.
MJO is now in the circle of weakness. All forecasts I reviewed show it to continue this way well into April.
AAM is forecast to go positive in the medium term by a bias-corrected version of the GEFS. This would broadly support a -NAO into Early/Mid April, and more snowfall for the Southern Alps. CFS disagrees with this, showing a more negative AAM outlook for April.
Beyond Late March, the NAO and AO are expected to stay neutral for the entire month of April on EC Monthly. CFS shows basically the same, for both the NAO and AO.
The Stratospheric polar vortex remains weak, and generally slowly declining even more, having a limited effect on European weather.
The models in general look like they still have plenty of snowfall above 2000m into April. The climate drivers are rather inconclusive, with the models showing a neutral NAO. GEFS shows a +AAM, which leads to a -NAO, but this is countered by CFS. And given I am not fully aware of this bias correction yet, I am going for a neutral NAO outlook in the long term, but updates on this will be on my Twitter. I predicted a slightly above average season. From what I have heard, it was like that in many areas, but different in some others. La Niña prevailed with a mostly +NAO winter. That has taught me many lessons, and I will incorporate this new knowledge into the outlooks next season. I hope you will join me on that journey. Thank you so much for reading these musings from my blog. If you are interested in the Australian season, those posts will start in late April.
Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the model forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.
Thanks again for reading this European long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above. Thank you again, and I will see you next season.