Welcome back to the first long Range snow forecast of the season from me, on the very first weekend of the ski season, looking out into late June, and early July. We will take a look at the models and climate drivers that matter. Firstly the models….
EC Monthly shows a prefrontal system with snow down to about 1900m on these dates, with rain below, and moderate snowfall above. The 24-28 June period aligns with the LWT, according to the progression on the GFS model. However, apart from some light rain for Baw Baw, CFS shows nothing in this period.
EC Monthly shows a proper coldfront with moderate-heavy snowfall to 1200m on the 26th and 27th, easing on the 28th. CFS doesn’t show anything in this period.
30 June-2nd July
EC Monthly shows two back to back lows in this period, bringing moderate-heavy snowfall on the 30th and 2nd, with an intermediate light snowfall break on the 1st. Both systems have snow levels of about 1000-1200m, clearing on the 3rd. CFS shows a trough coming from the north late on the 29th, linking with a coldpool from the south, to bring heavy snowfall to 1100-1300m at times across the Aussie Alps, from the 30th, with rapidly cooling temperatures into the 1st, before moving into the Tasman on the 2nd.
This is a small front, with moderate snowfall to mainly the Victorian Alps, and particularly the far southern parts of the Alps, with snowfall down to 1200-1400m. The front appears early in the morning and leaves quickly later that evening. CFS doesn’t show much for this period, preferring a coldfront on the 8th of July.
Climate DriversMost models show the MJO to move from the favourable Phase 5/6 to the circle of weakness over the next week. This limits the MJO’s impact over our region. EC Monthly shows continued weakness into July. POAMA shows the signal being slight over the month, into July, moving away from our region into less favourable Phase 6 and 7 in July briefly, before weakening again.
The AAM is currently positive (explanation in previous blogpost about this topic). The forecast on CFS is for a slow decrease in the AAM to fairly neutral values by July, by all of the ensemble members. GEFS (Bias-Corrected) also shows this trend somewhat within it’s range.
The SAM is currently positive and expected to fall back to neutral in the next week or so. In contrast, POAMA shows a mostly positive SAM outlook. Neutral is the general trend into late June in the models. To add to that, the Stratospheric polar vortex is slowly cooling down and one of it’s stratospheric nodes is passing over Australia over the 13-20th June period. This may be behind the increased activity in that period forecasted for the Alps.
The message is that it’s June. More snow will come, and the long term models reflect that. Into the long term, the drivers are fairly neutral, not determining a whole lot. Patience is the key here, me thinks.
Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the precipitation and temperature forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.
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