23rd June Australian Long Range Snow Outlook

Hello all, welcome back to another long term update for the Australian Alps. Very good start to the season with the big dump a week ago, and hopefully more of the white stuff on the forecast… This will include an analysis of the models and drivers that matter to the Australian Alps. Let’s jump into it.

Models

7-8 July

GFS shows a coldfront coming through primarily Victoria over the 7th bringing moderate-heavy snowfall, with a second part the next day with more snowfall. EPS Control shows a warm trough on the 6th moving south down to the Alps, bringing rain, before turning to snowfall to 1000-1400m later on the 7th and 8th.

15-18 July

EC Monthly shows some light snowfall on the 15th, in front of a massive coldfront that hits in the morning of the 16th, bringing heavy snowfall to all of the Australian Alps. It continues with heavy snowfall on the 17th, before winding down a little on the 18th, as the cold pool moves north as a cutoff. CFS also shows a big low hitting a day earlier on the 15th, with moderate-heavy snowfall, particularly in Victoria, until the 18th.

18-19 July

EC Monthly shows a coldfront slip in from the south bringing moderate-heavy snowfall late on the 18th, continuing through to the 19th, and winding up that night. CFS shows a coldfront approaching the Aussie Alps on the 19th, with moderate-heavy snowfall developing. This continues until the 22nd.

22-23 July

EC Monthly shows light snowfall occur on the 22nd and 23rd morning, mainly in the Victorian Alps. CFS shows the last system leaving, and another low late on the 22nd, bringing moderate-heavy snowfall to the Australian Alps, that continues to dump snow until the 25th.

Climate Drivers

The MJO is forecast to move from Phase 8/1 to the circle of weakness in the short term. During mid-July(maybe a little earlier)and possibly beyond, the MJO is forecast to be present in our region, increasing chances for snowfall, but only a little bit, as it is forecast to be still fairly weak. POAMA is similar, but a little more weaker.

The AAM is forecast to move into the negative phase, which correlates with more snowfall, on Bias-Corrected GFS into Early July. CFS on the other hand, shows the AAM to head into the less snowy positive phase in Early July and throughout the rest of that month.

The Stratospheric Polar Vortex remains strong in the forecast, but it moves slightly towards Australia, which could help bring more cold to the Australian Alps. The SAM is forecast to stay negative by GEFS into July, which increases the snowfall chance, POAMA shows a more neutral 3 week outlook.

Conclusion

In summary, the models all look very good, and the drivers don’t look too bad either, both early and later into July, as we head further into the season.

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the precipitation and temperature forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.

Thanks so much for reading this blog update into the Australian long range snowfall forecast, please follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and join my email list on the top bar of this blog. See you on the slopes!

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