Welcome back to another long term update… sorry it’s been so long, but I have been too busy skiing! That’s what it is all about after all. While I was in the mountains, a decent topup occured and more snow forecasted for this week. But what is happening in the long term… we shall see!
On the night of the 27th, GFS shows a low bringing rain to all but the higher parts of the Main Range, including upper Thredbo and Perisher, continuing throughout the day on the 28th. EPS Control has moderate snowfall on the 27th.
Early on the 30th, GFS shows a weak coldfront pushing through with light-moderate snowfall to about 1500-1700m. It continues throughout the day and weakens overnight. EPS Control suggests snowfall around this period too.
EC Monthly shows a strong coldfront pushing through on the evening of the 4th, starting as rain, but tending to snow early the next day. The model shows moderate snowfall over the 5th and 6th, to 500m on the former day, and getting potentially heavier on the latter day. It clears out by the early morning of the 7th. CFS shows a low moving towards the Alps on the 4th bringing moderate-heavy snowfall and continues through to the end of the 5th. Recurring Rossby Wave Train also shows a period of troughing around these dates. So this period could be interesting.
To the 12th…
EC Monthly shows a dry landscape snowwise with two clippers on the 10th and 12th, that slip away and don’t have enough moisture respectively. CFS also shows nothing until the 13th and 14th, where a massive system come in and brings very heavy snowfall to the Alps.
The EC Monthly MJO forecast has it at Phases 5&6 for the next couple of weeks until Early August. This is very good for snowfall until that point. Other models tend to agree.
GFS SAM or AAO forecast shows positive conditions until the 26th. Other models show that it could go more neutral before the month ends after this. A positive AAO is bad for Australian snowfall.
GWO is currently positive (image will update), and is forecast to stay that way. This is bad for Australian snowfall conditions.
The Stratospheric Polar Vortex is currently stronger towards it’s African side and weaker towards the Pacific side. That puts us in the middle, but could indicate that the African colder portion could move towards us in August, which could bring more cold towards us.
So the climate drivers are poor, except the great MJO positioning. Could it be our saving grace? The models also look fairly dry moving deeper into August. Let’s hope things improve, as we watch them unfold.
Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true 😉 I find the chase of these long range snow systems awesome, so come and join me! The climate driver forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the precipitation and temperature forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.
Thanks so much for reading this blog update into the Australian long range snowfall forecast, please follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and join my email list on the top bar of this blog. See you on the slopes!