Hello once again from the Snowy Hibbo. It’s been a while since my last update to this blog, where I gave the 30-31 July and 4-8 August periods a quiet clap. And without blowing trumpets or anything, they both turned/are currently turning into snowfalls. It’s definitely nice, but still note the disclaimer at the end. Let’s take a look later on this month…
GFS has been showing some sort of system coming through SE Australia during this period. This run shows it cold, coming in on the 16th and leaving on the 17th afternoon. EPS also has shown for a few runs a clear troughing period around this couple of days. The LWT comes on the 18th to the 20th of August, so there is a chance this could be pushed back a few days, and one or two GFS runs have reflected that.
EC Monthly shows some snow showers on the 22nd, not much. CFS shows a proper coldfront for this period, with moderate snowfall on the 22nd, getting heavier on the 23rd and 24th, easing on the 25th. This is in a period of troughing on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train.
Another quick coldfront on EC Monthly on the 26th, but this one bring moderate snowfall early, continuing until late that night, gone by the morning of the 27th. CFS shows some light snowfall on the 27th and 28th. This is in an even better period of troughing on the Recurring Rossby Wave Train.
EC Monthly shows moderate rain (snow for peaks) across the 29th and 30th August. CFS is interested in a coldfront from late on the 29th to the 31st of August, bringing moderate snowfall to the Alps. Another front brings heavier snowfall on CFS to the Alps on the 1st of September. This is in a rough alignment with the LWT node behind the one after the next.
EC Monthly RMM(below)shows the MJO signal staying roughly around the Phase 6 region. GEFS 200hPa VP doesn’t show this at all. It suggests that we are currently in Phase 8/1, and will move towards Phase 2&3 in the next few weeks. I don’t think the current MJO situation will help us too much. It’s all over the shop, and the models can’t agree on where it will go. My bet is neutral for a while long term.
We are starting to see signs of the stratosphere preparing for it’s Spring warming. EC shows a stark contrast between cold and warm at 10hPa in 10 days, a proper transformation from it’s current state at various levels. This changing state could help propel more snow bearing systems towards us.
CFS (GEFS is not available at the moment) shows the AAM staying mostly positive/neutral on the positive side. This doesn’t work well for more snowfall. There is one negative member in Late August/Early September though.
SAM/AAOHave a look at today’s twitter post from me.
SAM/AAO staying negative = more snowfall for SE Australia into Mid August. pic.twitter.com/C6bg43PTEo
— Zac (@longrangesnow) August 4, 2018
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsYou can follow me on Twitter for the latest updates on these blogs, and additional short term and long term weather tweets. I am aiming to become more regular.
So the models don’t look great. EC Monthly looks mostly dry, with two quick coldfronts and some rain. Given the alignment, I would be looking at the 15-19 August and 28 Aug-1st Sept period, based on the LWT, other subseasonal modelling, EPS and CFS. The drivers don’t look great nor bad. The current AAO and Stratosphere setup looks hopeful, and partially responsible for the current system. But the AAM and MJO look not so great.
Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. All systems you see here will change, as the date gets closer and may not eventuate all together. I don’t give much accuracy to these forecasts, but you can give these a bit of your time and your dreams might come true. The climate driver and Antarctic node forecasts tend to have a bit more skill than the precipitation and temperature forecasts, but certainly don’t put all your money on them. However, climate drivers are an awesome tool to explain the weather around us.
Thanks so much for reading this blog update into the Australian long range snowfall forecast, please follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and join my email list on the top bar of this blog. See you on the slopes until later in the month.