This will be the second last Outlook for Europe this season. Enjoy!
EC Monthly spots a incursion of light-moderate snow up high (above around 1500-1800m) later on in the 21st, for the Western Alps mainly, easing in the 22nd.
Waves of heavy snowfall above 1800m or so appear on the 23rd and 24th from the West, benefiting both sides of the Alps, but particularly the Southern Alps. The temperature gets colder on the 25th with more moderate-heavy snowfall with it, and then it eases over the day on the 26th on EC Monthly.
27th Feb-1st Mar
EC Monthly shows the 27th and 28th bringing heavy snowfall to the Northern Alps, with warmer air behind it bringing snowfall to ~1800m and above, and rain below on the first day of March.
After a period of rainfall in front of the system, EC Monthly shows cold air and moderate-heavy snowfall to the Northern Alps on the 2nd, continuing more lighter into the 3rd and 4th.
The MJO is currently in Phase 7, that correlates more with a -NAO setup, but we should expect a MJO orbit of Phase 8 & 1 into Mid February, with a potential return to the COD, or a move to more +NAO Phases towards the end of the month. These should cause more neutral tropical forcing effects on the NAO, with a mild tint towards more snowfall for the Southern Alps.
This EPS-46 run gives context to the fact we will see an improved outlook for the Northern Alps, from approximately the 5th to the 17th or so of Feb, because of a stronger jetstream, downstream from the +NAO like setup that is a reality now, and will become much more known in terms of the actual NAO index.
The AAM will weaken a bit over the first two weeks and reach a negative peak (albeit well in the positive side of the GWO), which contributes to the weaker chances of snowfall for the UK and the rest of Europe. But we should see it cycle through GWO Phases 5/6 halfway through the month, which helps bring about a -NAO setup, which is more conducive to bringing cold around to the UK and the rest of Europe, and it will bring snowfall towards the Southern Alps.
The latest stratosphere forecast shows a strengthening of the SPV on the back of the Early January SSW, but then it starts to split into lobes that support troughing and the push of the TPV over North America and Japan, rather than Europe. There is a bit of a lean towards troughing in Eastern Europe, and more towards ridging over the UK. This kind of setup could be beneficial for those in the Eastern Alps in the Day 10-20 period.
All and all, the models show a increasingly snowy Northern Alps. But I expect a -NAO setup in the last two weeks of the month and into the early days of March, that tends to support the Southern Alps (and the UK) in terms of snowfall and building troughing scenarios. In the medium term, we should see an atmosphere conducive to snowfall across the Northern Alps, and perhaps as we move forward, more so towards Austria, at least expect more cold there if anything.
Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it.
Disclaimer: There is lower skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems.
Thanks again for reading this European long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above. Next time, we will conclude and verify the season forecast.