Japan on the long term 13th January

Well the not so great Japanese snowfall season continues, and with that comes more analysis looking into the later parts of the snowfall season.

25th-27th January

The 26th of January, or Australia Day is forecasted by EC Monthly to feature heavy rainfall for Central Honshu, with some snowfall for Northern Honshu. The low moves across over the 27th.

28th-31st January

As the low slowly moves across Honshu on the 27th, we start to see a gearing up for a period of big snowfall created by another low, this time in the Sea of Japan, for the 28th, 29th and 30th of January for Honshu and Northern Hokkaido. We really start to see cold air come down with this one, as forecasted by EC. The snowfall should ease over the 31st.

1st-5th February

EC Monthly shows a strong lake/sea effect snowfall event moving over Honshu and much of Hokkaido starting over the early hours of the 1st of Feb, and not easing until the morning of 5th of Feb.

7th-8th February

This marginal low pressure system would deliver per EC, rainfall to lower altitudes and snowfall to higher altitudes and further north on Honshu over the 7th of Feb, easing in the early hours of the 8th.

Climate Drivers

Well my seasonal prediction (for a good early season) has gone pretty bad this year. Largely because of the base state that has been over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. In order to bring Japanese snowfall, we want consistent positive East Asian Mountain Torques, which bring strong Siberian Highs that drive snowfall into Honshu and Hokkaido.

This year we have had a weaker than normal Siberian High, and a weaker than normal Aleutian Low. This is part of why not much activity has occurred in the stratosphere, but also why lows haven’t been passing from the north, and the cold air in Siberia is less organised and less able to move down into Japan.

GFS forecasts this weaker activity to persist in the short term and improve in the longer term. This may help our prospects for snowfall in the last 10 days of January and into February.

Instead of a strong Siberian High and mechanism to bring lake/sea effect snowfall conditions, we have seen low pressure consistently present in East Asia, bringing lows down along the Pacific coast of Japan and bringing rainfall to Honshu.

+EAMTs in the past few weeks are currently helping snowfall conditions a bit, bringing more favourable surface conditions, but the medium term is likely to bring more unfavourable East Asian troughing with current and forecasted -EAMT.

A MJO pass through Phase 7 in the Pacific is likely to help improve conditions for late January and early February for Japanese snowfall. Based on this “timetable”, mid February will be the lull and late February will see an improvement into March.

Overall the weird nature of this season and the current climatic conditions has reduced my certainty of the state of things. But I certainly see potential for some improvement for the later stages of the Japanese snowfall season with some decent snowfall events on the horizon, given the (slowly) improving Indian Ocean base state. But it shouldn’t be taken as a given, the guidance shows little in the way of positive tropical activity for February. It would lack the amplitude needed to get past the East Asian troughing and the poor state of the Siberian High at this time.

The stratosphere and the Arctic state are hardly satisfying for those who want a repair to the Siberian Ridging problem. A +AO tends to be poor for Japanese snowfall. My confidence on a late season SSW is weakening, but still very much a possibility.

In summary, I believe the last ten days of January and the first week of February should be more desirable in terms of snowfall prospects. But caution should be taken with a lurking -EAMT in the region. I’m somewhat optimistic, but the potential for turbulent times is still there. Probably not so great for much of the remainder of February IMO. It all depends on the progression of the current climatic base state, and the conditions closer to the Arctic and in Siberia.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it.

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems.

Thanks again for reading this Japanese long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above.

Europe on the long term 7th January

Here are the climate models with analysis, and the climate drivers analysed below to see our snowfall chances.

21st-25th January

EC shows a consistent ridge across Europe, bringing dry conditions to the European Alps (both sides), the UK and the rest of Europe for the later stages of this month.

26th-30th January

We certainly see a more zonal look in the last days of January for the UK and the Northern Alps, although the Alps and Southern Europe are still controlled by a ridge.

31st Jan-4th Feb

Similar themes on EC persist into February with a +NAO zonal look for the UK, reasonable conditions for the Northern Alps with the zonal wind kick from the NW, but mostly dry for the Alps and Southern Europe

5th-9th February

EC shows the ridging influence waning in Southeastern Europe that may improve conditions there. The ridge persists over the Alps, and increases its influence over the UK and Scandinavia.

10th-14th January

Southeastern Europe is certainly under a more snow conducive environment, helping out the Eastern Alps with snowfall. The zonal look continues, but ridging also dries out the outlook for the Northern Alps and the UK.

15th-19th Feb

An Atlantic ridge blocks precipitation to the UK, but we see good conditions for snowfall in the Southern Alps, and the rest of Southern Europe on this final period on EC.


The GWO is currently in Phase 8-1, and is forecast to proceed through the lower phases of GLAAM orbit over the middle two weeks of January. This is likely to keep the current +AO/+NAO phase in a holding pattern, waiting for the next GWO cycle through the positive phases. The past cycle has been so far inadequate in getting the momentum deposits in the right areas for a less zonal outlook.

Frictional torque is currently negative, showing the ability for a negative orbit for the GWO, with the Mountain torque expected to follow.

What is likely is the continuing of a zonal climate in the Atlantic, and the development of European ridging in late January. There is potential for a change in this situation for Europe, and particularly the UK in early-mid February, but this is subject to various dynamic variables. That is when I’d have a chance for more cold and snowy conditions for the Southern Alps and Southern Europe (in the latter three weeks of February, and potentially into Spring). But the next month should favour snowfall for the Northern Alps, with periods of snowfall for the South as well.

The outlook for a more unsettled colder outlook for the UK and Southern Alps/Europe is exclusive to mid-late February into March for the time being, given the current zonal state will take a lot to dismantle.


Over the next 10 days, we are going to see MJO influence over the Phase 6-7 region, which is supportive of a -NAO after 10 days, so around the 15th-25th of January. Given the current climatic state, it’s unlikely to see a proper -NAO state, but we do see a reduction in the base state with neutral NAO conditions in this period, per EPS.

In my mind, the NAO will:

  • Drop in the 15th-25th Jan period.
  • Increase in the last week of the month into February.
  • Then possibly decline in the second and third weeks of Feb.

I expect the next MJO cycle in Phase 6-7 to coincide in early-mid February. So maybe it might improve for the UK a little bit later in the month, with the best conditions for the winter in mid-late February…


The Stratospheric Polar Vortex is under some stress in the medium term, but is likely to remain strong (no SSW yet):

Conditions are somewhat conducive for a SSW in February or early March, per QBO and Brewer-Dobson Circulation factors. This favours the Northern Alps for the time being.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it. 

Disclaimer: There is lower skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. 

Thanks again for reading this European long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above.

North America on the long term 30th December

Say hello to my next outlook for North America, enjoy…

10th-14th January

We see Alaskan ridging develop on EC Weeklies, with a Western US a troughing pattern and a Eastern US ridging pattern angled in from the North Atlantic.

15th-19th January

Similar scenes of Alaskan ridging – Western US troughing – Eastern US ridging in this particular period.

20th-24th January

The strong Western US trough weakens, along with the strong +AO/+NAO, yet there remains two dominant ridges on the East Coast and south of Alaska.

25th-29th January

Then comes the school of thought, that shows the Alaskan ridge starting to suppress snowfall for the PNW/BC region, with more snowfall for the SW. The East Coast ridge dominates the central and eastern parts of the US.

30th Jan – 3rd Feb

The -EPO (British Columbia) ridge weakens snowfall for the Northern parts of America. A SE ridge weakens snowfall chances for the East Coast except in New England.

4th-8th February

Again ridging dominates over the PNW, and much of the East Coast as well, with the best snowfall in this period to be found in the SW states and in New England.


We are currently seeing some sort of Phase 7-8 MJO influence, which is giving a bit of a helping hand for the Eastern US over the next 10 days or so. It’s also behind the -SOI drops, that have been seen going around.

A dominant Indian Ocean suppresses a significant pattern change in mid-January. So more of the same really, a weak winter in the Eastern US and a decent winter in the Western US.

We may see conditions improve for the PNW, but we also need to be wary of incursions of ridging in the Aleutian region towards the West Coast.

We see signs of a more dominant Western Pacific in late January, which would improve conditions in the Eastern US for February.


We are currently in the positive phases of the GWO, which gives us some moments for troughing in the Eastern US, and then you get a -EAMT > Aleutian ridging > Western US troughing > Eastern US ridging regime for much of January.

We have GWO Phase 5, but that will head to Phase 8 in the next week, and then go for another orbit in the neutral/negative phases in the first two weeks of January. Then you have to wait for the next orbit of the GWO probably later in January and early February to see more positive values for the GLAAM.

This is likely to lead to reasonably good conditions for snowfall in the first 10 days of January for the Eastern US, before Aleutian ridging and a reduction in momentum makes conditions less suitable for the majority of the rest of January for the Eastern US.

This is likely to bring upon Western troughing for the middle two weeks of January, with potentially the best snowfalls in the PNW and in British Columbia, but still reasonably good potential in the Rockies and the Southwest.

Like the EPS modelling acknowledges, there is potential that the Alaskan ridge reaches over into the BC/PNW region later in the month, and to therefore suppress snowfall there.

Stratosphere and Arctic Oscillation

The stratosphere is pretty neutral, and the best chances of a SSW are further down the road.

The overall model consensus is that the Stratospheric Polar Vortex is likely to strengthen over the next two weeks. There is a still a good chance for a SSW in February however, just not during the current climatic conditions.

This is keeping a +AO intact, which is reducing the chances for Eastern US snowfall, and increasing the chances for Western US snowfall.

EC Weeklies are forecasting a consistent positive Arctic Oscillation through to February.

The main conclusions to draw here is that the Eastern US will have a decent chance in early January, then a weaker pattern for the rest of the month, with a potential improvement in February.

The PNW will find the next two-three weeks good, but lesser so later in Jan perhaps. The rest of the Western US will do fine, but it could get better again later in January.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it. 

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. 

Thanks again for reading this North American long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above. 

Japan on the long term 27th Dec

Sorry for a long wait for another update, here’s the next edition of the Japanese long range snow forecast.

9th-10th of January

EPS Control shows us a system on the 9th-10th of January, spear-headed by a low over Hokkaido, bringing heavy snowfall there.

It also features moderate-heavy snowfall for Honshu, but temperatures aren’t as great particularly the further south you get.

12th-13th of January

A low sweeps to the south, bringing heavy snow to higher elevations of Central Honshu and heavy rain to the lower elevations over the 12th, easing over the 13th on the EC Monthly model.

14th-19th of January

On the 14th and 15th, weak winds and westerlies bring light-moderate snowfall to Central Honshu. On the 16th, NW winds come in to bring moderate-heavy snowfall for Honshu and parts of Hokkaido, and then easing on the 17th. On the 18th and 19th, another bout of NW winds brings more snowfall for Central Honshu on EC Monthly.

21st-24th of January

On the 21st and 22nd of Jan, EC Monthly forecasts moderate-heavy snowfall for Honshu. This eases over the 23rd and the morning of the 24th.

25th-28th of January

A very strong and cold system brings heavy snowfall on the 25th of Jan to Honshu and parts of Hokkaido. This systems continues through to the 27th and 28th.

Climate Drivers

East Asian Mountain Torque

We are currently in a negative EAMT, and this is part of the reason why rain is associated with the systems arriving in the short term. It means that there is troughing in China, which allows rain-bearing lows to develop to the south of Japan.

I expect a positive EAMT to develop in the next few days to counter the current negative trend for a brief moment. This helps to develop ridging in Eastern China, which improves our chances for snowfall in the first 10 days of January.

However from about the 1st to 3rd of Jan, we will see another -EAMT come into play, and this one could be sustained for a while. This would increase chances of rainfall and decrease cold in the middle two weeks of January from Japan.

As you can see in the model guidance, the troughing over Siberia early in January weakens the Siberian High, which weakens our chances for cold and snowfall in Japan as well.

Arctic Oscillation

The AO is looking positive in the medium term, and throughout January, which decreases the chance of strong snowfall for Japan.


The stratosphere is likely to remain stable in the early stages of January, because of a lack of tropospheric setup to help a weakening of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex. There still are decent background conditions for a potential SSW later in January or February. A SSW would improve conditions for the Japanese later season.


A Phase 7 MJO is good for Japanese snowfall. The forecast that we briefly pass through it on RMM indexes helps to explain the forecast for a good period of snowfall in early January.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it.

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems.

Thanks again for reading this Japanese long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above.

Europe on the long term 16th December

Here is the latest European outlook for snowfall prospects on the long term.

1st-5th January

In this period, EC Monthly shows troughing over the Alps and Southern Europe, with Scandinavian ridging/-NAO present. Warmer than normal for parts of Western Europe, and colder than normal for Eastern Europe.

6th-10th January

Troughing anomalies over Far Eastern Europe and off the Atlantic Coast of the British Isles, along with a Scandinavian high are present for this period on EC Monthly. Warmer than normal for Southeastern Europe. CFS is forecasting European ridging for this period.

11th-15th January

Scandinavian ridging and North African ridging are reducing troughing risks for Southern Europe, and increases it for Northeastern Europe on EC Monthly. Cooler than normal for parts of Eastern Europe. Wetter than normal for Southeastern Europe. CFS still forecasts European ridging to continue, but troughing develops towards Southeastern Europe.

16th-20th January

Ridging over Spain reduces snowfall over the Alps, and creates a zonal pattern over the UK, per EC Monthly. Warmer than normal for Western Europe including the Western Alps and the UK. Wetter than normal for the UK.

21st-25th January

Ridging over Southern Europe on EC Monthly reduces snowfall for the Alps, particularly for the South. A low in Scandinavia ensures a zonal pattern for Northern Europe. Warmer than normal for Southern Europe and the Alps, neutral for the UK. CFS forecasts more European ridging and a zonal pattern for UK.

Arctic Oscillation

The AO/NAO are both negative in the medium term per EPS Monthly, until the New Year. The impacts of this should continue into the first week of January, before a return to more zonal conditions.


A positive mountain torque is expected over the next few days worldwide, with the East Asian component lasting a few days and quickly heading back to negative. This is probably enough to dampen the fall of the GLAAM and head us through Phase 2 & 3 in the GWO over the next fortnight, eventually landing us in Phase 4 again as we enter the New Year.

If we take the composites:

We see a -NAO setup develop in GWO Phase 1 with a lag. This spawns a good couple of weeks for the Southern Alps IMO, with meridional setups created by the GSDM. In Phase 3 & 4, we start to see this breakdown into a more zonal pattern in the Atlantic, which is preceded by the development of a European High, particularly for the North. So I’d argue for a -NAO being present for much of the next two weeks, based on the factors that run through the GSDM. This -NAO will continue into the New Year for a little bit, but should start to wind down as the GLAAM heads into the more positive momentum orbits.

This means more cold and snowfall for the UK, even though the NAO’s alignment in this case is crucial and may weaken cold risks for the UK.

This also means a case for good snowfall for the Southern Alps, and probably less so for the Northern Alps. The rest of Southern Europe should benefit from this.


GEFS continues the consistent IO focused base state, but shows some signs of convection around the Atlantic over the next week.

EPS forecasts the IO base state to strengthen over the 10 day period, and then weaken in the last week of December. This allows the Western Pacific to take control more so, within the pattern.

EPS shows some signs of the forecast heading towards a Phase 6 in the MJO for the New Year, after RMM prescribed neutrality in the next two weeks. This would contribute to a -NAO potentially, but also add to momentum that would diminish the -GLAAM base state.


All this talk of meridional anomalies is likely to be dampened after the next week or so, by the downwelling strong SPV anomalies moving down into the troposphere. When it precisely does manage to weaken the -NAM is unclear, but it’s likely to occur from the last week of Dec or perhaps the first week of January next year. When it does the EPS Monthly forecast used in the models section of the blog is more likely to manifest, with the drivers influencing a relaxation of any cold risks for mid-January.


  • Fair to say that the next two-three weeks are likely to feature some potential for cold and snowfall risks for the UK and Southern Europe. This doesn’t mean snowfall is necessarily imminent for the UK, just that potential is enhanced. This effect may be stronger for Southern Europe, as opposed to the UK, as the anomalies lack a lot of strength.
  • This is generated by the -GLAAM state going through a low orbit of the GWO and the current -AO and -NAO state.
  • This period is likely to end around the first week of January, when a more zonal pattern takes root for the middle section of January. This would favour snowfall for the Northern Alps.
  • A potential next period for -NAO and -AO risks would be early in February, maybe.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it. 

Disclaimer: There is lower skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. 

Thanks again for reading this European long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above.

North America on the long term 9th December

Welcome to the start of this season’s long term outlooks for North America. This year we are trying to involve the entire continent with the usual models and climate driver analysis.

17th-23rd December

EC Monthly shows this week to feature troughing along the West Coast, and also shows some potential for New England and SE Canada. CFS likes Western US ridging and Eastern US troughing.

24th – 30th December

Again EC Monthly shows troughing in the Southwest US, benefitting California and the Four Corners states, and the opposite for the PNW with ridging. Ridging is forecast for the East Coast of US. CFS again shows the continuing of a Eastern US troughing and snowfall pattern, and Western US ridging.

31st December – 6th January

This week on EC Monthly shows ridging in the PNW region. It also depicts troughing for the Northeast US. CFS shows a strengthening SE ridge, Central US troughing and Pacific coast ridging.

7th-12th January

Some troughing on the West Coast of US, but most of the continent is dominated by a Southern ridge, with some troughing in the far north of New England

13th-18th January

This period shows troughing becoming more significant for the Midwest and the NE of the US. Meanwhile there is ridging in the SW and the PNW.


The GFS VP200 forecast shows the Indian Ocean standing wave remaining in place for the medium term, which isn’t as great for atmospheric rivers or trying to shift the pattern.

CFS keeps this theme running long term, so it is expected for the IO standing wave to stay this way throughout the month, amid some ups and downs of the signal. I’d expect it to slowly weaken this month, and complete its change into the new year, with the decline in the +IOD state.

This means that a deep cold pattern for the Eastern US is probably still not going to come until potentially early-mid January, as the tropical pattern starts to really evolve and get interesting.

The EC Weeklies are consistent with a strong IO tropical standing wave. The activity in MJO Phase 6 & 7 in January might make things more interesting for cold risks in the long long term, but for now, we are stuck with this base state. It all depends on the progression of the +IOD.


Recent GWO History
  1. We will remain in GWO Phase 8/1 for a few more days, thanks to the lingering +EAMT.
  2. From say the 12th-14th of Dec to the last week of the month, we should see a proper -GLAAM circuit.
  3. GEFS & GEPS show positive mountain torques around the Christmas period, with potential downstream impacts around the New Years period.
  4. We should see a more positive momentum circuit in the first two weeks of January.
  5. What this means is that we should see a strong Aleutian Low based on the current +EAMT over the next 10-20 days, pushing into the EPO domain, flooding the CONUS with Pacific air as the extension matures.
  6. We will see this impact continue until the progression weakens this after Christmas. We will see better chance for cold for the East in the New Year.


Apart from the biased GEFS, the stratospheric polar vortex per measure of 10hPa and 50hPa zonal wind is strengthening. There’s a decrease of large wave 1 amplitude and a mild increase of wave 2 amplitude.

So a chance of a SSW are unlikely for December, and will probably increase towards the latter parts of the winter. An inducement of a -AO state will probably have to wait until later in the season, again setting back a deep cold early winter for the Eastern US.

Arctic Oscillation

FWIW CFS shows a -AO for the late December and early-mid January period, after some ups and downs in the medium term. EC Weeklies show a +AO for the late December to early January period.

North Pacific

Courtesy of Andrew Winters

The jet in the North Pacific extends in the next week, and then normalises in the middle of the month, while shifting towards the pole. The focus of the snowfall in the 15th-30th December period will be towards the PNW IMO, thanks to this poleward shift. Later in the month, as the jet retraction peaks, it may get less conducive. But I’d forecast

Chances for snow-bearing systems for the Southwest are not particularly high at this point, thanks to not a very forceful Sub-tropical jet stream at this point. But nonetheless the positive Pacific Meridional Mode (warm SSTAs southwest of California), still provides potential when the STJ probably expands in early-mid January. Ultimately we need Nino forcing to be stronger, and this won’t be a thing until the IO standing wave declines.


  • I expect a good run over the next 10 days for the PNW.
  • This good pattern of snow-bearing weather will eventually expand out to the majority of the Rockies, with the exception of the far Southwest for the 10-20 day period.
  • Tahoe and the Rockies should both do well out of this period, once the initial 10 days pass.
  • After the New Year, we should see deeper cold risks per the GWO cycle for the Central and Eastern North American regions.
  • The short term good pattern over the Eastern US will dissipate into ridging in the latter half of December. It might get more interesting in the days prior to January, with the aforementioned colder risk in Jan. This doesn’t mean there is no chance of snowfall, rather it is more limited.
  • After the current short term Southern US snowfall risk, chances will be lower until January, or at least the last week of December.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it. 

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems. 

Thanks again for reading this North American long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above. 

Japan on the long term 24th November

Here is the first long term outlook for Japan, focussing on the climate drivers and the model forecasts.

7th-9th Dec

GFS and EPS shows a common trend for a system right here. They both proceed with some sort of low from the south of Japan bringing rain in the 5th and 6th of Dec. Then the fetch from the NW comes down on the 7th, creating the potential for the first major Central Honshu snowfall event of the season, continuing into the 8th and 9th. This is a key period and setup to watch.

16th-18th Dec

EC Monthly Control shows not a lot after the 7th-9th December, and shows a low coming from the south bringing rainfall on the 15th, with a chance for some moderate snowfall for a Central Honshu on the 16th.

18th-20th Dec

After a rain-bearing low from the south on the 18th, EC Monthly shows an event of moderate-heavy snowfall on the 19th and 20th for Honshu and more moderate for Hokkaido.

21st-23rd Dec

This particular low brings heavy snowfall for Hokkaido in the 21st and 22nd of Dec, with potential for moderate snowfall on the 23rd, as per EC Monthly.

Climate Drivers

So in terms of the progression of the GSDM in the extratropics:

  1. We should expect positive torques and an increase in momentum in the next 10-15 days. This is observed by +EAMTs being prevalent, which increases ridging over China. This improves chances of snowfall for Japan, as it creates the NW fetch needed for the lake-effect.
  2. So the end of November and the first 10-12 days of December should be rather decent for Japanese snowfall, and could provide a solid early start.
  3. Mid-late December is likely to provide more chances for troughing to the South of Japan, bringing rain, and an otherwise relatively dry synoptic outlook. This doesn’t mean there is no chance of snowfall, just lower chances. Tropical and extratropical support for systems is unlikely.
  4. This support will enhance in the last days of December, and it is likely that January would have an improving atmosphere more conducive to snowfall in Japan.


The last days of November will be spent with a neutral MJO. Early December is likely to start with a return to (sort of) Phase 7-8 conditions for a short while, until we return to Phase 1 in the second week of December. Or it could be mostly Phase 1 forcing on the other hand. These will improve tropical forcing for Japan a little, and are reflective of the general state of momentum as discussed above. This is good for Japanese snowfall in the first week of December.

Arctic Oscillation

Apart from a short period of +AO in the troposphere, the Arctic Oscillation outlook is mostly neutral. So the Arctic domain effects upon Japan will be minimal at this point. There is SSW potential later in December or beyond, that may help Japan in January.

The Siberian High is currently quite strong and is expected to weaken to more normal strength.

Thanks so much for reading. I hoped you enjoyed reading it.

Disclaimer: There is low skill asssociated with using long range model forecasts to find snow systems.

Thanks again for reading this Japanese long range snow forecast, follow me on Twitter @longrangesnow and subscribe to my email list by clicking on the tab on the main header above.